Foundering of the yacht Bayesian with loss of 7 lives

1 INTERIM REPORTINTERIM REPORT VERY SERIOUS MARINE CASUALTY MAY 2025 Interim report on the investigation into the foundering of the yacht Bayesian, with the loss of seven lives, 0.5 nautical miles south‑east of Porticello, Italy on 19 August 2024 Extract from The United Kingdom Merchant Shipping (Accident Reporting and Investigation) Regulations 2012 – Regulation 5: “The sole objective of a safety investigation into an accident under these Regulations shall be the prevention of future accidents through the ascertainment of its causes and circumstances. It shall not be the purpose of such an investigation to determine liability nor, except so far as is necessary to achieve its objective, to apportion blame.” As the full investigation report will not be published within 12 months of the accident date, this interim report is published, pursuant to Regulation 14(2)(b) of the Merchant Shipping (Accident Reporting and Investigation) Regulations 2012. NOTE This report is not written with litigation in mind and, pursuant to Regulation 14(14) of the Merchant Shipping (Accident Reporting and Investigation) Regulations 2012, shall be inadmissible in any judicial proceedings whose purpose, or one of whose purposes is to attribute or apportion liability or blame. © Crown copyright, 2025 See http://www. nationalarchives.gov.uk/ doc/open-government- licence for details. All reports can be found on our website: www.gov.uk/maib For all enquiries: Email: iso @maib.gov.uk Tel: +44 (0)23 8039 5500 INVESTIGATION Following the accident the Marine Accident Investigation Branch (MAIB) initiated a safety investigation into the circumstances of the loss of Bayesian . This safety investigation is being conducted in parallel to a criminal investigation being led by the Termini Imerese Public Prosecutor’s Office, Sicily, Italy. That criminal investigation has restricted the safety investigation’s access to the wreck and other material elements of primary evidence. Consequently, this interim report is based on a limited amount of verified evidence. The circumstances depicted in this report may alter following the release of evidence held by the Italian authorities at the time of publication or following examination of the wreck. Some information about this accident, not otherwise available to the MAIB, has appeared in the public domain and there has been much speculation as to the circumstances of the accident. The safety investigation has purposefully not included information it has been unable to verify. The MAIB’s ongoing safety investigation is considering all aspects of the accident to determine its causes and circumstances. These include Bayesian’s design, stability, escape routes, operation and emergency procedures. The safety investigation has also considered the forecast weather and that experienced during the accident, as well as the available guidance to mariners on actions to be taken in extreme weather. Bayesian This interim report contains information from the investigation completed to date, including a simplified narrative of events; factual detail and analysis of the environmental conditions; details of Bayesian’s stability, as documented; and a summary of a study into how the yacht was likely impacted by the environmental conditions experienced. The ‘desktop’ assessment of Bayesian’s capsize is based on available documents and information that will be validated and, as necessary, iterated and improved following detailed examination of the wreck once it is salvaged. Readers are cautioned that there is the possibility that new evidence may become available that might alter the circumstances as depicted in this report. Image courtesy of Karsten Börner (skipper of Sir Robert Baden Powell ) 2 PB NARRATIVE On 14 August 2024, the privately owned and operated yacht Bayesian (Figure 1) sailed from the port of Milazzo for a short excursion around the Aeolian Islands and the north coast of Sicily. There were 12 guests and 10 crew on board. The intention was to disembark the guests on 19 August before proceeding to Naples for a period of maintenance. On 18 August, Bayesian was anchored at Cefalù on the northern coast of Sicily. With the wind increasing, it was decided to motor towards Porticello, 25 nautical miles (nm) to the west, to anchor for the night. This was both to shelter from the forecast weather and to allow for easy disembarkation of guests the following day. At 2124 1 , Bayesian anchored to the east of the main breakwater. The centreboard 2 was in the raised position. The yacht Sir Robert Baden Powell was also at anchor nearby. The seas were calm and there was a very light wind from the north-west. Thunderstorms had been forecast, and those on board Bayesian could see occasional flashes of lightning away to the west. Bayesian’s skipper left instructions to be woken by the overnight watchkeepers (deckhands DH1 and DH2) if the wind speed increased above 20 knots (kts) or if there were signs that Bayesian was dragging anchor. Having checked the latest weather forecast the skipper then went to bed. By 0030 the last guest had retired, leaving DH1 and the evening steward (S1) on duty. At 0100, DH2 took over the watch from DH1. The wind at this time was noted as being no more than 8kts, and there were no signs of Bayesian dragging anchor. At 0300, DH2 noted the wind as being at 8kts from the west but thought that the thunderclouds and lightning seemed to be getting closer. At about 0330, two of the guests (G1 and G2) awoke but remained resting in 1 All times are universal time coordinated (UTC)+2, unless otherwise stated. 2 Also known as a swing keel. Figure 1: Bayesian general arrangement Image courtesy of Perini Navi S.p.A. FLYING BRIDGE DECK MAIN DECK LOWER DECK Ladder down to main deck Upper saloon Flying bridge Stairs down to wheelhouse Port aft EPIRB Port aft liferaft Port forward liferaft Aft cockpitSaloon Aft saloon sliding doorsStairs down to guest cabinsStairs up to flying bridge WheelhousePort wheelhouse door Stairs down from wheelhouse to crew acommodation Cabin of chief engineer Engine room Cabin of owner Cabin of G3, G4 and G5 Stairs up to wheelhouse Crew mess area Engine control room Stairs up to saloon Crew accommodationCabin of G1 and G2Galley 3 PB their cabin. At approximately 0355, DH2 videoed the advancing storm and posted it to their social media feed. DH2 then went onto the deck and closed the forward hatches and cockpit windows to protect Bayesian’s interior from the rain that had started falling. DH2 noted that the wind had picked up to 30kts and was broad on the port bow. Bayesian was now listing to starboard and DH2 thought the vessel was dragging its anchor. At around 0357, both Bayesian and Sir Robert Baden Powell started dragging their anchors in the rapidly worsening weather. At around 0400, DH2 ran below and woke the skipper. Together they returned to the flying bridge. At about the same time, the chief engineer (C/E) woke up. Having experienced bad weather at anchor before, the C/E got up and walked to the engine control room to prepare the vessel for manoeuvring. After making sure that all three generators were running, the C/E went to the wheelhouse to start the steering pumps and hydraulic pumps for the controllable pitch propeller. The chief officer (C/O), chief steward (CS), chef and stewards had also all been woken by the yacht’s change of motion. They dressed and made their way out of the crew accommodation. At this time Bayesian was estimated by those on board to be listing between 10° and 20° to starboard. The owner started to make their way to the flying bridge to see if the taxis that were arranged for 0800 would have to be cancelled due to the weather. The CS secured some loose items in the crew mess area then went to the upper deck to secure other it

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Foundering of the yacht Bayesian with loss of 7 lives

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